Regional Assessment of Urban Impacts on Landcover and Open Space Finds a Smart Urban Growth Policy Performs Little Better than Business as Usual
Identifieur interne : 000269 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000268; suivant : 000270Regional Assessment of Urban Impacts on Landcover and Open Space Finds a Smart Urban Growth Policy Performs Little Better than Business as Usual
Auteurs : James H. Thorne [États-Unis] ; Maria J. Santos [États-Unis] ; Jacquelyn H. Bjorkman [États-Unis]Source :
- PLoS ONE [ 1932-6203 ] ; 2013.
Abstract
Assessment of landscape change is critical for attainment of regional sustainability goals. Urban growth assessments are needed because over half the global population now lives in cities, which impact biodiversity, ecosystem structure and ecological processes. Open space protection is needed to preserve these attributes, and provide the resources humans need. The San Francisco Bay Area, California, is challenged to accommodate a population increase of 3.07 million while maintaining the region’s ecosystems and biodiversity. Our analysis of 9275 km2 in the Bay Area links historic trends for three measures: urban growth, protected open space, and landcover types over the last 70 years to future 2050 projections of urban growth and open space. Protected open space totaled 348 km2 (3.7% of the area) in 1940, and expanded to 2221 km2 (20.2%) currently. An additional 1038 km2 of protected open space is targeted (35.1%). Urban area historically increased from 396.5 km2 to 2239 km2 (24.1% of the area). Urban growth during this time mostly occurred at the expense of agricultural landscapes (62.9%) rather than natural vegetation. Smart Growth development has been advanced as a preferred alternative in many planning circles, but we found that it conserved only marginally more open space than Business-as-usual when using an urban growth model to portray policies for future urban growth. Scenarios to 2050 suggest urban development on non-urban lands of 1091, 956, or 179 km2, under Business-as-usual, Smart Growth and Infill policy growth scenarios, respectively. The Smart Growth policy converts 88% of natural lands and agriculture used by Business-as-usual, while Infill used only 40% of those lands. Given the historic rate of urban growth, 0.25%/year, and limited space available, the Infill scenario is recommended. While the data may differ, the use of an historic and future framework to track these three variables can be easily applied to other metropolitan areas.
Url:
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0065258
PubMed: 23755204
PubMed Central: 3673918
Affiliations:
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Thorne</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="aff1"><addr-line>Information Center for the Environment, University of California Davis, Davis, California, United States of America</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Information Center for the Environment, University of California Davis, Davis, California</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Californie</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Santos, Maria J" sort="Santos, Maria J" uniqKey="Santos M" first="Maria J." last="Santos">Maria J. Santos</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="aff2"><addr-line>Spatial History Project and Bill Lane Center for the American West, Stanford University, Stanford, California, United States of America</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Spatial History Project and Bill Lane Center for the American West, Stanford University, Stanford, California</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Californie</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Bjorkman, Jacquelyn H" sort="Bjorkman, Jacquelyn H" uniqKey="Bjorkman J" first="Jacquelyn H." last="Bjorkman">Jacquelyn H. Bjorkman</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="aff1"><addr-line>Information Center for the Environment, University of California Davis, Davis, California, United States of America</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Information Center for the Environment, University of California Davis, Davis, California</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Californie</region></placeName></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">PLoS ONE</title><idno type="eISSN">1932-6203</idno><imprint><date when="2013">2013</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p>Assessment of landscape change is critical for attainment of regional sustainability goals. Urban growth assessments are needed because over half the global population now lives in cities, which impact biodiversity, ecosystem structure and ecological processes. Open space protection is needed to preserve these attributes, and provide the resources humans need. The San Francisco Bay Area, California, is challenged to accommodate a population increase of 3.07 million while maintaining the region’s ecosystems and biodiversity. Our analysis of 9275 km<sup>2</sup> in the Bay Area links historic trends for three measures: urban growth, protected open space, and landcover types over the last 70 years to future 2050 projections of urban growth and open space. Protected open space totaled 348 km<sup>2</sup> (3.7% of the area) in 1940, and expanded to 2221 km<sup>2</sup> (20.2%) currently. An additional 1038 km<sup>2</sup> of protected open space is targeted (35.1%). Urban area historically increased from 396.5 km<sup>2</sup> to 2239 km<sup>2</sup> (24.1% of the area). Urban growth during this time mostly occurred at the expense of agricultural landscapes (62.9%) rather than natural vegetation. Smart Growth development has been advanced as a preferred alternative in many planning circles, but we found that it conserved only marginally more open space than Business-as-usual when using an urban growth model to portray policies for future urban growth. Scenarios to 2050 suggest urban development on non-urban lands of 1091, 956, or 179 km<sup>2</sup>, under Business-as-usual, Smart Growth and Infill policy growth scenarios, respectively. The Smart Growth policy converts 88% of natural lands and agriculture used by Business-as-usual, while Infill used only 40% of those lands. Given the historic rate of urban growth, 0.25%/year, and limited space available, the Infill scenario is recommended. While the data may differ, the use of an historic and future framework to track these three variables can be easily applied to other metropolitan areas.</p></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Mcdonald, Ri" uniqKey="Mcdonald R">RI McDonald</name></author><author><name sortKey="Green, P" uniqKey="Green P">P Green</name></author><author><name sortKey="Balk, D" uniqKey="Balk D">D Balk</name></author><author><name sortKey="Fekete, Bm" uniqKey="Fekete B">BM Fekete</name></author><author><name sortKey="Revenga, C" uniqKey="Revenga C">C Revenga</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Jenerette, Gd" uniqKey="Jenerette G">GD Jenerette</name></author><author><name sortKey="Potere, D" uniqKey="Potere D">D Potere</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Theobald, D" uniqKey="Theobald D">D 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Wu</name></author></analytic></biblStruct></listBibl></div1></back></TEI><affiliations><list><country><li>États-Unis</li></country><region><li>Californie</li></region></list><tree><country name="États-Unis"><region name="Californie"><name sortKey="Thorne, James H" sort="Thorne, James H" uniqKey="Thorne J" first="James H." last="Thorne">James H. Thorne</name></region><name sortKey="Bjorkman, Jacquelyn H" sort="Bjorkman, Jacquelyn H" uniqKey="Bjorkman J" first="Jacquelyn H." last="Bjorkman">Jacquelyn H. Bjorkman</name><name sortKey="Santos, Maria J" sort="Santos, Maria J" uniqKey="Santos M" first="Maria J." last="Santos">Maria J. Santos</name></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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